Scenarios plus improved measurement and reaction are better than common sense for dealing with complex problems

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This 75 minute video describes the problems with relying on common sense to deal with complex problems, as well as how to improve responses by optimising prediction using scenarios, and improved measurement and reaction. It also shows how social scientists are capitalising on the power of the internet for improving understanding of prediction.

Video (1 hour and 15 minutes): “The Myth of Common Sense: Why Everything that Seems Obvious Isn’t” presented by Duncan Watts was a talk at the Santa Fe Institute, USA in 2012 – about his book “Everything is Obvious: How Common Sense Fails Us”. Online:



Posted: October 2014
Last modified: February 2016