Five primary steps in the scenario process are charted: (1) defining project boundaries (2) determining the driving forces (3) analysing the driving forces (4) generating scenarios and (5) scenario transfer to allow visualisation of scenario outputs as a story. The first four steps involved scientific experts, public administrators, and regional planners and managers. The fifth step involved all those in the previous steps minus the scientific experts. The scenario method was applied to the demographic challenges facing the Ostregion in Austria and enabled:
- integration of knowledge from previous studies as well as the “implicit” knowledge of regional experts
- mutual learning between scientists from different disciplines and practitioners from different regions and professional affiliations
- identification of governance strategies plus visualising them for public decision making
- incomplete and uncertain knowledge to be dealt with.
The authors also concluded that the integration of qualitative and quantitative approaches was very insightful, as well as being a challenge with required “a lot of trust, openness and flexibility among all participants involved”.
Digital poster: Braito, M., Penker, M., Görgl, P., Gruber, E., Wytrzens, H. K. (2013). Scenario Method for Integrating Knowledge on Demographic Development in Peripheral Regions of Austria to 2030, digital poster #645, from the First Global Conference on Research Integration and Implementation in Canberra in Australia, online and at co-conferences in Germany, the Netherlands and Uruguay, 8-11 September, 2013. You can access this digital poster as a PowerPoint presentation or PDF: http://i2sconference.digitalposter.com.au/posters-list/645.
Posted: May 2014
Last modified: July 2015