This video outlines the fundamentals of risk perception and their implications for assessing and making decisions under uncertainty. It describes experiments that evaluate the relationship between an expert’s status and their ability to estimate uncertain facts. It describes procedures that improve the accuracy and conditioning of expert estimates of facts. Finally, it outlines the results of a four year experiment organised by Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) in which participants predicted the outcome of various geopolitical events. The results highlight the benefits of structured question formats and structured group interactions for getting relatively high quality judgements out of experts.
Video (28 minutes): “Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis” presented by Mark Burgman was a plenary talk at the First Global Conference on Research Integration and Implementation held in Canberra in Australia, online and at three co-conferences (Lueneburg in Germany, The Hague in the Netherlands and Montevideo in Uruguay), 8-11 September 2013. The Microsoft PowerPoint presentation from the video is available as a PDF (1.3MB).
Posted: November 2014
Last modified: November 2014