We live in an increasingly interconnected world where there are few simple policy solutions to complex, often “wicked” problems, and an increasing number of stakeholders with multiple, often divergent incentives are involved in decision-making.
"For policy to bring positive change to people, it needs to be informed by the best available evidence and local knowledge. Producing robust evidence is just part of the policy change; we need to look at where that evidence is – or isn’t – being used by governments, and why.
Jeremy Heimans compares what he calls “new power” with “old power”. New power examples such as Airbnb, Kickstarter, LinkedIn and the Obama (USA) Presidency campaign, involve the deployment of mass participation and peer coordination, value transparency and networked governance and work like an electric current.
Demonstrates an effective method for quantifying consequences and likelihoods of risks, as well as for combining these assessments. Different kinds of risks are examined: death, injury and illness; economic; social; environmental; symbolic; external; and reputational.
This video outlines the fundamentals of risk perception and their implications for assessing and making decisions under uncertainty. It describes experiments that evaluate the relationship between an expert's status and their ability to estimate uncertain facts.
Five primary steps in the scenario process are charted: (1) defining project boundaries (2) determining the driving forces (3) analysing the driving forces (4) generating scenarios and (5) scenario transfer to allow visualisation of scenario outputs as a story.
This 75 minute video describes the problems with relying on common sense to deal with complex problems, as well as how to improve responses by optimising prediction using scenarios, and improved measurement and reaction.